PS3 Could Buckle Under Wii, 360

Sony's used to being on top, but one researcher says it's possible the PlayStation 3 could end up at the bottom of the pile.

Of the many interesting quotes coming from Sony executives recently, perhaps it was European PlayStation boss David Reeves' one that Sony is not concerned about market share that seemed least Sony-like. Some saw it as pre-emptive damage control in the face of stiff competition from Microsoft and Nintendo. Analyst David Cole, of DFC Intelligence, agrees.

"It now appears clear that this new generation of console systems is going to result in a big shake-up in the game industry power structure," Cole writes in a new article for Next Generation.

"While it has always been clear that Sony's dominant market share was destined to decline, there now appears to be the distinct possibility the PlayStation 3 could end up third in market share behind both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii."

Refreshingly, Cole admits that this is just one of several possible outcomes of the hardware strife and should not be taken as gospel, as so many other analysts claim their research to be.

So why does Cole think Sony could end up bottom of the pile? Not surprisingly, price is a big issue, and a lot could depend on how quickly Sony lowers the price of the PlayStation 3, which debuts at $499/€499 and $599/€599 in November.

One of the more esoteric variables dangling Sony over the coals is a console's ability to impress with that extra something special.

"With the competition having features like Xbox Live and the Nintendo Wii controller," says Cole, "the PS3 may not have that much of an advantage in the elusive 'Wow Factor.'"

Cole also damns Sony's strategy of targeting the high-end buyer who is concerned about high-definition visuals at the expense of the mainstream, which got Sony where it is today.

"Sony has done very little to justify why the system is worth a premium price for consumers that don't care about raw hardware performance and are not hard-core audio/visual consumers," he wrote. "Unfortunately we believe that represents over 90 per cent of the consumers in the marketplace."

Alex Wollenschlaeger
Editor, Kikizo Games