Analyst: Wii Could Top PS3

More crystal ball gazing sees Nintendo and Microsoft doing well in the next gen. Sony, not so much.

Sony may be king of the gaming hill at the moment, but analyst David Cole of DFC Intelligence says the firm is handing Microsoft and Nintendo a "golden opportunity" to not only catch up to but maybe even surpass it.

The culprits, Cole says in a meaty, 600-page report out this week and summarised at Next Generation, are the PlayStation 3's high price and Sony's shifting attitude to its wünderkind, which PlayStation boss Ken Kutaragi seems resigned to think of as a computer instead of a games console.

Cole quite rightly points out that the price of the PlayStation 3 is relatively insignificant taken in the context of outfitting a full, high-definition home entertainment system. What's important is that while the PlayStation 3 won't be outrageously expensive for these people, they form but a sliver of the market in the US and abroad.

If Sony were to continue with its current strategy of painting the PlayStation 3 as something for the entertainment elite, he speculates, then even in the best case scenario the system would do about half as well as its predecessor.

So who is going to fill the gap left by an ailing Sony? Simple, says Cole: Nintendo. Thanks to the low price of the Wii (around £150) and the company's stated aim of bringing of attracting as large an audience as possible, Nintendo "has the opportunity to be the market share leader in all major regions."

Microsoft, too, will benefit, but Cole doesn't see the Xbox 360 doing as well in Europe as it will in the US. Japan is already a lost cause, if current sales figures are anything to go by.

But perhaps the most important piece to take out of Cole's most recent cheerleading is the caveat that precedes it: "We emphasize that there is a great deal of uncertainty because much will depend on how individual players execute their strategies over the next several years."

Roll on Christmas '06.

Alex Wollenschlaeger
Editor, Kikizo Games